Emerging Market Opportunities

In our continuous search to improve upon our emerging markets success in the beginning of 2014, we would like you to consider another demonstration of country-wide performance, the 2014 World Cup.  The World Cup occurs every four years, and showcases the most talented soccer players from around the world.  For the preliminary round, countries are split into eight groups, each consisting of four teams.  We have taken these same groups, and used them to display financial, rather than physical, performance metrics.  Each group has been sorted by year-to-date return.

To demonstrate present and projected valuation, the current and forward price-to-earnings ratios are also listed.  As a reminder, price-to-earnings ratio is defined as current price divided by trailing 12-month earnings per share.  Greece, for example, would be the only country in this list with negative earnings, given their negative P/E ratio (-3.3). Italy’s P/E ratio is so alarmingly high (287.1) because the country has just recently generated positive, albeit still very low, earnings.

Forward P/E is the ratio of a country’s current price over its projected earnings for the next four quarters.  The best way to use this information is to compare the forward P/E ratio with the current P/E ratio, keeping in mind that lower is better.  Since the bulk* of these countries have forward P/E ratios that are lower than their current P/E ratio, a vast majority would be expected to see increased country-wide earnings over the next year.

As we have recently mentioned, we currently see a much greater opportunity in emerging markets as opposed to developed markets.  Developed markets, for the most part, performed very well in 2013 while emerging markets lagged far behind.  Based on historical evidence, we feel that this performance gap will continue to shrink throughout the rest of the year.  Each emerging market carries with it a different set of economic circumstances, however, which is why we are continuously focusing on selecting emerging market countries for our Alternative (ALT) strategy that we feel are most poised for future off-field success.

*Excluding Belgium, Argentina, Russia, and the special circumstance of Greece.

Four 401-K Tips

We recently spoke on WCCO explaining four tips everyone should consider when looking at their 401-K.  As the stock market continues new highs breaking two records today, Monday November 18th 2013, with the Dow Jones hitting a record 16,000 and the S & P 500 hitting 1,800 it is worth checking in on your current 401-K.  Click here, WCCO Interview, to check out the four tips and listen to the interview.

Who’s impacted by the Fed’s announcement yesterday?

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would continue its current policies: buying $85 billion in Treasury and mortgage-backed securities each month, and keeping short-term interest low.

This has the most direct impact on the bond market. Investors of all stripes hold bonds, but particularly retirees who are typically looking for income and relative safety. The irony is, this year the bond market has been anything but safe. It’s been highly volatile as the market contemplates a change in Fed policy. Many bond portfolios have generated negative returns as bond prices have fallen.

What can an investor do? There are some strategies that a professional financial advisor can put in place to help. As we’ve discussed in previous blog posts, our strategy has been to focus on bonds with shorter maturities in order to avoid price volatility.
 
For investors looking for income, we’ve implemented different strategies—beyond bond portfolios—to try to meet that goal. While interest rates are beginning to rise, they’re still extremely low by historical standards, so alternatives such as our Paid in Advance® strategy may offer a more suitable answer for income-seeking investors.

--Nick Asmus, Wade Financial Group Investment Department

Earnings calls—a chance to look under the hood

Yesterday, Apple disclosed its third-quarter earnings…and opinions are all over the map! (Disclosure: Wade Financial Group owns stock in Apple.)

This often happens. Earnings calls give a snapshot of the company, and there’s a lot of different data, that can be interpreted in a number of different ways. It’s a science…and an art.
 
Apple is a case in point—you could look at different aspects of the earnings call and take away completely different stories. 

• Sales of iPhones and iPads are up over last year—great! 
• Guidance on future profit margins did not meet analyst expectations—not so good. 
• What are the possible new products? 
• What are the expectations for holiday sales? 
• What else is the company saying?

Earnings calls like this give investors a chance to “open up the hood and examine the engine” on a company. Individual investors can take the time to investigate fully and form their own opinion, independent of the market. For instance, bad news could send the stock sliding…which could be a buying opportunity, if you’re able to recognize it.
But, it takes a lot of time and energy—not to mention objectivity—to do that thorough work. And not just on one company, of course—on a full investment portfolio.  Just reading the headlines and trying to jump on market bandwagons is not going to cut it.
 
That’s why it’s so important to engage a professional, who is looking at these stocks and companies day in and day out…so you don’t have to.

--Nick Asmus, Wade Financial Group Investment Department